Public market research still shows mild growth for China sea-freight forwarding in 2026, but new tonnage and blank sailings coexist. The useful mental model for a shipper is a jumping range, not a single “the market is up / down” headline.
FCL still carries most volume and fits factories and brands with a steady calendar. LCL is growing faster on the back of cross-border e-commerce and more frequent top-ups. Near 14–15 CBM, take both an FCL and an LCL quote and add the extra CFS days before you decide.
Indicative port-to-port times vary widely: US West often 12–16 days, North Europe 28–35, Middle East 18–24. Those figures exclude domestic trucking and destination clearance. A Red Sea diversion, a congested terminal or a blank sailing can add another week.
In practice we prefer a contract-plus-spot mix: lock the core boxes on a contract and leave 10–20% on the spot market for surprise restocks or a cancelled sailing. Do not put an entire peak season on one carrier and one ETD.
This is an observation from public industry reports, not a rate promise. Ask for the current week’s schedule on your lane. If you want the factory calendar split into FCL / LCL / air, we will sit with you and cut it.
